Overview#
Standard Chartered has indicated that U.S. tariff revenue has decreased following a Supreme Court decision that invalidated the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. The bank warns that the financial impact could worsen in the coming months due to temporary measures having limited effectiveness.
Current Revenue Situation#
Economist Dan Pan from Standard Chartered estimates that tariff revenue will be around $25 billion for both March and April, the first two months after the ruling. Although this represents a decline from previous highs, it is still approximately 3.4 times higher than levels before the implementation of tariffs. However, this revenue is below what was seen at the end of 2025, when tariffs were at their peak.
Future Implications#
Pan projects that the annual revenue loss from the IEEPA ruling could reach about $60 billion. This drop represents around 0.2% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To mitigate the impact, the administration quickly introduced a 10% blanket tariff under Section 122 of trade law. However, Pan cautions that this solution is temporary, with a significant revenue decline expected after July 24, 2026, when the 150-day limit on these tariffs expires.
Challenges Ahead#
The administration is attempting to replace IEEPA with other legal frameworks, but these efforts face challenges. While there is an expansion of Section 232 tariffs, which apply to steel, aluminum, and copper, negotiations with Canada and Mexico are complicating matters. Additionally, Section 301 investigations are being conducted to broaden tariff applications, but these measures are more complex and sector-specific compared to the broader IEEPA tariffs.
Pan emphasizes that shifting from uniform tariffs to those that vary by sector and country may lead to inefficiencies, indicating a challenging path ahead for U.S. tariff policy.