Shell's Demand Forecast#
Shell has announced that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise of 54-68% by 2040 and between 45-85% by 2050. This growth is based on a starting point of 422 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) in 2025.
Growth Projections#
By 2040, LNG demand is expected to reach between 650 MTPA and 710 MTPA, and further increase to between 610 MTPA and 780 MTPA by 2050. To meet even the lower end of these forecasts, Shell emphasizes the need for additional investment in LNG supply during the 2030s and 2040s.
Regional Drivers#
The majority of this demand growth will come from Asia, which is anticipated to account for 70% of the increase. Currently, LNG makes up about 14% of the global natural gas supply, which translates to just over 3% of the world's primary energy supply. Shell expects this percentage to rise to over 4% by 2040 and to stabilize around that level by 2050.
Geopolitical Considerations#
Due to the current geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, Shell has opted not to release its annual LNG Outlook for 2026. Despite the volatility in prices caused by regional conflicts, the company maintains a positive long-term outlook for LNG. While global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s and has already peaked in regions like Europe and Japan, LNG demand is expected to continue growing at least until 2040.