Overview#

Scotiabank has reiterated its Sector Underperform rating for AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) with a price target of $41.20. This comes after recent challenges related to the company's satellite deployment, leading to a significant drop in the stock price, which closed at $78.52, down from $90.94.

Recent Developments#

On April 9, 2026, an explosion at Blue Origin’s Rocket Park testing facility in Merritt Island caused damage, prompting concerns about delays in launching operations. Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello noted that such incidents often result in postponements until the technical implications are fully assessed.

Additionally, the NG3 mission faced a setback when SpaceMobile’s Bluebird 7 satellite did not reach its intended orbit, despite the successful landing of the New Glenn rocket's reusable booster. Fortunately, the satellite's cost will be covered by insurance, as confirmed by Scotiabank.

Market Reactions#

The stock has experienced a 13.6% decline over the past week, reflecting high volatility, indicated by a beta of 2.8. Coello referenced a similar incident in 2023 when United Launch Alliance had to delay its Vulcan rocket launch due to a fireball during testing, highlighting the unpredictable nature of space missions.

Financial Outlook#

In the broader market context, Deutsche Bank has lowered its price target for AST SpaceMobile from $139 to $117, citing increased competition following Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar. Meanwhile, Barclays raised its target to $65 after AST SpaceMobile successfully launched its sixth BlueBird satellite, despite mixed financial results. The company exceeded revenue expectations by 30% in the fourth quarter of 2025 but fell short on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by 9%.

AST SpaceMobile has projected 2026 revenues between $150 million and $200 million, driven by gateway deliveries and government milestones. The company has also garnered interest from industry leaders, including a Meta executive who praised its innovative space-based connectivity strategy.