RBC Capital's Rating on Shopify#
RBC Capital has reaffirmed its Outperform rating for Shopify stock, currently priced at $136.90, following the release of encouraging U.S. e-commerce growth data. The firm has set a price target of $170.00, reflecting confidence in Shopify's performance despite the stock trading above its estimated Fair Value.
Strong E-Commerce Growth Data#
Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that non-store sales, which include online shopping, increased by 13.2% year-over-year in March. This is an improvement from 8.6% in February and 7.2% in January. In the first quarter, U.S. e-commerce sales reached $380 billion, marking a 9.7% increase compared to the same period last year, up from 6.5% growth in the previous quarter.
Shopify's Performance Metrics#
RBC Capital estimates that Shopify's gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 34.3% year-over-year to $100.4 billion in the first quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of $98.7 billion. They noted that Shopify's gross payment volume growth has outpaced GMV, driven by a rise in payment usage and offline sales. Over the past year, Shopify has achieved a remarkable 30% revenue growth, with analysts projecting a 27% revenue increase for fiscal 2026.
Future Prospects and Analyst Insights#
The firm also highlighted that U.S. consumer spending has strengthened, which bodes well for Shopify. They anticipate a greater foreign exchange benefit in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Analysts from CIBC and Piper Sandler have also expressed optimism about Shopify's future, with CIBC maintaining an Outperform rating and a price target of $185, while Piper Sandler holds an Overweight rating with a $165 target. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo has adjusted its price target to $166 but continues to maintain an Overweight rating, expecting Shopify's upcoming results to exceed consensus estimates.