Poland's Economic Growth Forecast#
Poland's Ministry of Finance has announced that the country expects its economy to grow by 3.6% in 2026. This projection is part of a broader economic outlook covering the years 2026 to 2030, which was adopted by the Polish government on Tuesday.
Government Deficit and Debt#
The ministry also indicated that the general government deficit is anticipated to decrease by 0.5 percentage points, reaching 6.8% of GDP. This means that the government's spending will be more balanced compared to its income. However, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 65.1% this year, up from 59.7% in 2025, indicating that the overall debt burden is increasing relative to the size of the economy.
Impact of Inflation and Future Growth#
While the forecast suggests that inflation will not be significantly affected in the coming years, real GDP growth is expected to be slightly lower in the next two years, by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. After this period, the economic impact of current challenges is expected to diminish.
Risks to Economic Stability#
One of the main risks highlighted for net spending growth in 2026 is the potential impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This situation could affect not only Poland's economy but also that of its neighboring countries, creating uncertainty in the economic outlook.