Overview of Job Exposure to AI#
According to a report from Bank of America (BofA), nearly one in four jobs globally—approximately 838 million positions—are at risk from generative artificial intelligence (AI). The report highlights that younger workers, women, and those with higher education levels face the greatest exposure to these changes.
Regional Disparities in Job Risk#
The report indicates that high-income countries, where jobs often require non-routine cognitive skills, have a higher percentage of jobs exposed to AI, at 33.5%. In contrast, low-income nations see this figure drop to just 11%. This suggests that wealthier economies are not only more vulnerable to job displacement but are also likely to benefit more from the productivity gains that AI can bring.
Economic Concerns and Historical Context#
While fears of mass unemployment due to AI are prevalent, BofA economists argue that such concerns may not align with economic theory or historical evidence. They note that past technological advancements, from the Industrial Revolution to the internet era, initially disrupted jobs but ultimately led to the creation of new roles that had not existed before.
Long-Term Effects on Displaced Workers#
A separate report from Goldman Sachs sheds light on the potential economic pain for workers displaced by AI. Analyzing data over four decades, researchers found that those who lost jobs due to technological changes, like typists and telephone operators, faced significant long-term economic challenges. Displaced workers took longer to find new jobs and experienced real earnings losses compared to their peers in more stable positions. This phenomenon, termed "occupational downgrading," occurs when workers' skills diminish in value, forcing them into lower-paying roles.