Overview of Recovery Predictions#
Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate a divided recovery in 2026, where growth will be primarily driven by companies involved in fixed-asset investment. In contrast, those tied to production are expected to recover more slowly, and consumer-related stocks are predicted to be the least favorable.
Impact of Global Events#
The ongoing conflict in Iran is intensifying this divide, as rising energy prices and interest rates are putting pressure on consumer spending. Additionally, unreliable supply chains and the increasing disparity between US and global gas prices suggest that more production may move to the US market.
Import Trends#
As of early 2026, US imports of capital goods have shown a robust year-over-year growth of about 30%, while imports of consumer goods have declined by 30%. This significant difference marks a departure from historical trends. The growth in capital goods imports, which is 35% higher compared to levels from 2022-2024, indicates that re-industrialization in the US is in progress, aligning with Morgan Stanley’s $10 trillion reshoring thesis.
Beneficiaries of Reshoring#
In a reshoring scenario, the consumption of goods may not change significantly and could even drop due to increased costs. The primary beneficiaries of this shift are not the companies selling the products but those involved in constructing and servicing the facilities, particularly in the US industrial sector.
Market Outlook#
Following a strong first half of 2025 and subsequent inventory adjustments, US inventory levels have stabilized, returning to pre-November 2024 election rates. Meanwhile, China's exports have faced challenges, tracking 2% lower in early 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Morgan Stanley identifies several stocks, such as Rockwell Automation and Parker-Hannifin, as well-positioned for growth, while expressing concerns about others like Carrier Global and 3M.