Overview of Adjusted Forecasts#
Mexico's central bank recently released its monthly survey of economists, highlighting changes in inflation and economic growth predictions for the next two years.
Inflation Predictions#
Economists have increased their inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.37%, up from the previous estimate of 4.22%. However, the inflation projection for 2027 remains unchanged at 3.82%. This means that while prices are expected to rise more than previously thought in 2026, the rate of inflation is expected to stabilize in 2027.
Economic Growth Outlook#
The growth outlook for 2026 has been slightly reduced from 1.44% to 1.35%. This indicates that economists expect the economy to expand at a slower pace than earlier anticipated. On a more positive note, the GDP forecast for 2027 has been increased from 1.79% to 1.82%, suggesting a more optimistic view for the following year.
Currency Expectations#
In terms of currency, the survey indicates that economists expect the Mexican peso to strengthen against the dollar, with a projected exchange rate of 18.02 pesos per dollar by the end of 2026, an improvement from the earlier forecast of 18.11. The 2027 estimate for the exchange rate has also been adjusted to 18.55 pesos per dollar, down from 18.65.
These forecasts reflect the average opinions of 43 economists surveyed by Banco de Mexico, providing insight into the expected economic landscape for Mexico in the coming years.