Poll Results Overview#
A new poll from BTG Pactual/Nexus indicates that Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are nearly tied in a potential runoff for the upcoming presidential election. Lula, representing the left, is projected to receive 46% of the votes, while Bolsonaro, from the right, is close behind with 45%. This reflects a consistent trend, as a similar poll in March also showed both candidates at 46% each.
First-Round Simulations#
In simulations for the first round of voting, Lula is expected to secure about 41% of the votes. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro's support ranges from 36% to 38%, depending on the presence of other candidates in the race. Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to achieve over 50% of valid votes to win outright; if no candidate meets this threshold, the top two candidates move on to a second round of voting.
Political Context#
The political landscape has shifted since former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently imprisoned, endorsed his son Flavio in December. This endorsement has heightened interest in the race and influenced voter sentiment. Lula, now 80 years old, is aiming for a fourth non-consecutive term as president, having previously defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
Polling Methodology#
The Nexus poll surveyed 2,028 individuals between Thursday and Saturday, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction. This means that the actual support for each candidate could vary slightly, but the close numbers indicate a competitive race ahead.