Jefferies Downgrades InPost#
Jefferies has changed its rating on InPost S.A. from "buy" to "hold". This decision follows the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which did not meet market expectations. Jefferies also lowered its price target for InPost shares from €17 to €15.60, reflecting concerns about the company's profitability due to significant investments planned through 2026.
Buyout Offer Details#
On February 9, a group of shareholders, including Advent, FedEx, A&R Investments, and PPF Group, proposed a cash offer of €15.60 per share for InPost. This offer represents a 50% premium compared to InPost's stock price at the beginning of January and is slightly below its initial public offering (IPO) price of €16. Jefferies analysts believe that a competing offer is unlikely, aligning their price target with the proposed buyout price.
Financial Performance Overview#
InPost's fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was PLN 1.10 billion, which is a 4% decline from the previous year and 9% lower than expected. A significant factor in this decline was the performance in the UK market, where the company reported a loss of PLN 99.3 million, contrasting with a profit of PLN 100.1 million in the same quarter last year. In Poland, however, InPost saw a 16% increase in EBITDA, reaching PLN 1.03 billion, supported by revenue growth of 12%.
Future Outlook#
For fiscal year 2026, InPost anticipates flat EBITDA, predicting a decrease in profit margins in Poland due to ongoing investments in pricing strategies, volume growth, and a new AI shopping assistant feature in their app. The company plans to expand its Automated Parcel Machine (APM) network by 20,000 units, which will increase capital expenditures by 33% to PLN 2.4 billion. Jefferies has adjusted its EBITDA estimates for the upcoming years, significantly reducing projections for the UK segment.