Significant Drop in Hormuz Transits#
Shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted to just 3% of normal levels over the past week due to a double naval blockade. This situation has prompted a shift in oil flow, leading to increased activity in the Red Sea, according to Bank of America’s global shipping tracker.
U.S. Considerations on Iranian Proposal#
The U.S. government is currently evaluating an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This proposal comes amid ongoing discussions about Iran’s nuclear program, which are being postponed for the time being.
Impact on Container Shipping#
Despite the tensions related to the Iran conflict, container shipping has not faced significant disruptions. Bank of America noted that container spot rates seem to have reached their peak. Additionally, global port congestion has decreased by 0.75% compared to the previous year as of April 2026. However, as the annual contracting season wraps up, there are concerns about potential declines in container spot rates.
Changes in Export Patterns#
The closure of Hormuz is affecting tanker flows, with Middle Eastern oil exports down significantly compared to last year. In contrast, U.S. crude exports have risen by 10% year-over-year in mid-April, largely due to the release of strategic reserves. Bank of America anticipates that the current high rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which are between $400,000 and $500,000 per day, will normalize once Hormuz reopens. However, they expect VLCC rates to remain elevated at $100,000 to $150,000 per day due to a surge in restocking and longer shipping routes.
Dry Bulk Demand on the Rise#
In the first quarter of 2026, dry bulk demand has increased by 5% year-over-year, driven mainly by strong grain flows. There are also expectations for a surge in coal flows as energy sources shift in the coming months, suggesting that dry bulk rates may continue to show strength through the second quarter of 2026.