Overview of the PC Market Outlook#
The global personal computer market is facing a significant downturn, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 10% decline in shipments by 2026. This drop is attributed to rising component costs and a slowdown in the replacement cycle of older PCs, particularly following the transition away from Windows 10.
Factors Contributing to the Decline#
Goldman Sachs has revised its shipment forecast to 257 million units for 2026, reflecting a flattening replacement cycle after a surge of upgrades in late 2025. The industry is also experiencing pressure from increased raw material costs, especially for memory, which is making it harder for manufacturers to profit from entry-level PCs. Analysts noted, "We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-2028, given persistent pressures of rising memory costs and demand pull-ins into the fourth quarter of 2025."
The Rise of AI PCs#
Despite the overall decline, the report highlights a promising trend in the premium segment of the market: AI-capable PCs. Goldman Sachs estimates that shipments of these advanced machines will reach 150 million units in 2026, achieving a 59% market penetration. High-end PCs are better positioned to withstand economic challenges due to their higher price points, which allow manufacturers to manage rising costs more effectively.
Future Market Trends#
Goldman anticipates that AI PCs will continue to thrive, predicting they will account for 81% of the total market by 2028. This shift towards AI-centric hardware is expected to benefit leading companies like Apple, Lenovo, HP, and Dell, as they adapt their product lines to meet the growing demand for edge computing capabilities. Analysts believe that AI PCs will outperform traditional models due to their lower sensitivity to price increases and the increasing need for advanced computing solutions.