Overview of Supply Chain Strain#

As the Iran war enters its third month, global supply chains are facing significant challenges. Analysts from Bernstein report that air freight rates have surged by approximately 30%, while ocean freight benchmarks have also increased sharply compared to levels before the conflict began.

Rising Freight Costs#

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has jumped by 42%, and the Drewry World Container Index has risen by 18% since mid-February. This increase in freight costs is largely due to a reduction in air cargo capacity, as major airlines like Qatar Airways and Emirates have scaled back operations significantly. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, further contributing to the rising costs of air transportation.

Impact on Air and Ocean Freight#

Some air freight rates have nearly doubled, with the composite airfreight rate reaching around $3.30 per kilogram in January 2026. Meanwhile, ocean freight volumes have decreased by 3% in January and February, partly due to anticipated tariff announcements. Although only about 2% of global container traffic passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has still affected shipping routes, leading container lines to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope.

Trucking Industry Developments#

In the trucking sector, spot truckload rates (excluding fuel) have seen significant increases, rising 24% year-on-year in February and continuing to climb in March and April. This surge is attributed to stricter government regulations and rising fuel prices affecting carriers. J.B. Hunt Transport Services noted a marked difference in the freight environment compared to previous years, indicating a supply-driven recovery in the market.

Mixed Economic Signals#

Recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows mixed signals across major economies: the U.S. at 52.7, China at 50.8, and Europe at 51.6, its highest in nearly three years. Additionally, oil prices have risen by $25-$30 per barrel since the onset of the conflict, contributing to higher transportation costs across various modes. This complex landscape continues to evolve as the situation develops.