Global Oil Stocks Decline#
Goldman Sachs has reported that global oil stocks are nearing their lowest levels in eight years. This situation is becoming increasingly concerning due to the rapid depletion of supplies, particularly as access through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
Recent Price Surge#
On Monday, oil prices surged by approximately 6%. This spike followed incidents where Iran attacked several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and set fire to an oil port in the UAE. These events prompted President Trump to consider deploying the U.S. Navy to ensure safe passage for shipping, marking a significant escalation in tensions since a ceasefire was established four weeks ago.
Current Stock Levels#
Goldman Sachs estimates that total global oil stocks currently cover about 101 days of global demand. However, they predict this could decrease to 98 days by the end of May. While it is unlikely that global stocks will fall to critical operational levels this summer, the speed at which supplies are being depleted is alarming.
Refined Products in Short Supply#
The bank also noted that global stocks of refined oil products have decreased from 50 days of demand prior to the U.S.-Israeli conflict over Iran to just 45 days now. This decline indicates that easily accessible refined oil products are nearing dangerously low levels, further heightening concerns about future supply stability.