Eli Lilly's New Target Price#
Wolfe analysts have increased Eli Lilly's price target for its experimental oral obesity drug, orforglipron, from $1,250 to $1,325. This change reflects expectations for strong long-term demand and the company's continued dominance in the weight-loss market.
Growth Projections for Orforglipron#
The analysts believe that orforglipron could generate peak annual revenue of approximately $44 billion, a significant increase from the previous estimate of $32 billion and above the consensus estimate of around $26 billion. This optimistic outlook is based on the drug's potential to broaden the obesity treatment market by offering effective weight-loss results in a convenient pill form.
Market Dynamics and Demand#
Despite a decline of 8% in Lilly’s shares this year, analysts view the stock's valuation as reasonable given the anticipated growth. They suggest that the oral GLP-1 therapy could attract more patients who may have been hesitant to use injectable treatments. Historical comparisons to other drug classes, such as statins and erectile dysfunction medications, indicate that easier-to-use treatments can significantly expand the patient base.
Future Outlook#
Wolfe anticipates that the obesity market will support multiple competing drugs, with Lilly expected to maintain a leading position. Projections indicate that the company could hold about 67% of the market by 2030 and approximately 57% by 2035. Additionally, the broader cardiometabolic portfolio of Lilly is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with an anticipated increase of over 15% annually over the next two years, starting from a base of around $65 billion in 2025. Orforglipron is currently under regulatory review in the United States, with a decision expected by April 10, 2026.