Strong Start to 2026#
The Dutch economy demonstrated robust growth in early 2026, according to ING. Recent economic data highlighted strength across various sectors, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East now poses new challenges for the country.
Economic Growth and Consumer Sentiment#
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Netherlands exceeded growth expectations, largely due to strong exports and government spending. This positive momentum has carried into 2026, with manufacturing production rising by 0.4% month-on-month in January. Retail sales also increased, despite some concerns among consumers about the economic outlook. Sentiment data from the European Commission for January and February showed improvements, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
Impact of the Middle East Conflict#
The war in the Middle East has disrupted global energy and transport markets, creating significant uncertainty for the Dutch economy. As a major logistics hub and energy importer, the Netherlands is particularly vulnerable, although its energy-intensive industries are less affected than those in neighboring Germany.
Resilience and Future Outlook#
Despite recent shocks, including the pandemic and previous energy crises, the Dutch economy has shown resilience. Unemployment remains low, and government support has helped stabilize household finances. The Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis forecasts that many households will see purchasing power improve this year, with a median increase of around 1.3%. However, rising energy prices due to the conflict could threaten this growth. ING anticipates that if the conflict is short-lived, household consumption could grow by 1.5% this year, although risks to economic stability have increased in an otherwise resilient environment.