Overview#

Citizens has reaffirmed its Market Perform rating on The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) stock, highlighting concerns about competition from artificial intelligence (AI) and advantages held by rival platforms.

Competitive Pressures#

Analyst Matthew Condon from Citizens notes that The Trade Desk's historical edge in the programmatic advertising industry is diminishing. This is largely due to AI reducing barriers to entry and making it easier for new competitors to enter the market. The firm has struggled to find unique strengths that would make it more optimistic about The Trade Desk's stock performance.

Recent Stock Performance#

The Trade Desk's stock has faced significant challenges, dropping 55% over the past year and currently trading 73% below its 52-week high of $91.45. Recent data shows that 13 analysts have lowered their earnings forecasts for the company, which adds to the concerns about its competitive position.

Data and Media Access#

Citizens points out that The Trade Desk lacks proprietary data and exclusive inventory access, which are crucial for advertisers. In contrast, Amazon has the largest retail media dataset and is effectively using it to enhance its demand-side platform. Although The Trade Desk has a substantial third-party data marketplace, advertisers often find it difficult to achieve satisfactory results relative to the costs involved.

Market Dynamics#

Unlike competitors like Amazon and DV360, The Trade Desk does not have access to owned media, such as Prime Video or YouTube. Citizens believes that advertisers are increasingly prioritizing performance over objectivity, which allows owned media platforms to offer lower fees, putting additional pressure on The Trade Desk.

Future Outlook#

While Citizens views The Trade Desk's shares as fairly valued at their current price, InvestingPro's analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued at $24.65. In other news, The Trade Desk is expected to meet its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the first quarter of 2026, although concerns remain about demand in specific sectors. Additionally, there have been executive changes within the company, including the appointment of Reddit CFO Drew Vollero to its board.