Upgrade to 'Buy'#
Berenberg, a German investment bank, has upgraded Bechtle AG, an IT services company, from a 'hold' rating to a 'buy' rating. The firm has adjusted its price target for Bechtle from €38 to €34, suggesting a potential upside of about 25% from the stock's recent closing price of €26.44 on the XETRA exchange.
Strong Order Backlog#
Analyst Andreas Wolf noted that Bechtle's order backlog has grown by 26% year-on-year in fiscal 2025, reaching an all-time high. Despite this positive trend, management's guidance for fiscal 2026 was seen as overly cautious. They anticipate only a modest earnings growth of around 2.5%, which reflects concerns about memory chip supply issues that could impact demand from small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Financial Targets and Estimates#
Berenberg has revised its sales estimates downward for Bechtle, cutting the 2026 estimate by 3.2% to €6.60 billion and the 2027 estimate by 3.5% to €6.93 billion. They also introduced a new estimate for 2028 at €7.27 billion. Earnings before tax (EBT) estimates were reduced by 10.2% for 2026 to €335.9 million and by 13.8% for 2027 to €346.1 million. Earnings per share (EPS) estimates were adjusted to €1.89 for 2026 and €1.95 for 2027, with a projection of €2.13 for 2028.
Market Position and Risks#
Bechtle reported fiscal 2025 sales of €6.41 billion, with an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of €494.6 million and a net profit of €228.3 million. The company is well-positioned to navigate memory chip shortages due to its scale and relationships with around 300 manufacturers. However, Berenberg highlighted that economic conditions in central Europe pose a risk, as IT budgets for SMEs are closely tied to the overall economy.