Overview of Gas Market Predictions#
European natural gas markets are expected to experience significant fluctuations in the coming year. Bank of America (BofA) has projected that Dutch TTF gas prices could average €50 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2026. This forecast hinges on the stability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Gulf region.
Factors Influencing Prices#
Analyst Francisco Blanch noted that if disruptions to LNG supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are limited to about 5 to 6 weeks, prices may stabilize at the predicted level. However, if these disruptions extend longer, the impact could be severe. BofA estimates that a month of lost LNG supply from these countries could reduce European gas storage by approximately 10%.
Potential Price Surges#
If the Gulf LNG supply is significantly disrupted for around 10 weeks, BofA warns that TTF prices could soar above the highs seen in 2022, compelling Europe to seek additional gas supplies from Russia through less commonly used routes. In a more optimistic scenario, BofA anticipates that energy flows will normalize by April, easing market pressures.
Long-Term Outlook#
Looking beyond 2026, BofA expects a more stable environment, predicting that Dutch gas prices will decrease to €30/MWh in 2027 as a surplus of supply returns. However, the ongoing global conflict continues to cast a shadow over energy markets, contributing to recent spikes in Brent crude and TTF prices. BofA has also raised its 2026 Brent price forecast to $77.50 per barrel, citing widespread challenges in refining operations.